Lichtman’s methodology, developed together with his geophysicist pal Vladimir Keilis-Borok, contains metrics equivalent to incumbency, midterm positive factors, third celebration candidates, short-term economic system, long-term economic system, social unrest, White Home scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, and overseas coverage failure and success. For the 2024 presidential race, Lichtman believes Harris has eight of those keys in her favor, which he argues is ample to safe her victory.
“Kamala Harris is sweet on eight of the 13 metrics and subsequently has the keys to the White Home,” Lichtman states.
The historian is famend for his correct prediction of Donald Trump’s surprising victory in 2016, regardless of nearly all polls predicting in any other case. Nevertheless, some critics argue that Lichtman had really forecasted that Trump would win the favored vote, whereas Hillary Clinton secured practically 3 million extra votes than Trump. Lichtman’s solely inaccurate prediction got here in 2000 when he forecasted Al Gore’s victory in opposition to George Bush; however, Gore did win the favored vote, and the electoral faculty final result was determined by the U.S. Supreme Court docket.
For the 2024 election, Lichtman notes that eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, whereas three favor Donald Trump. The keys benefiting Trump embrace the celebration controlling the White Home gaining seats within the 2022 midterm elections, the sitting president or vice-president operating for reelection, and what he sees as Harris’s lack of charisma.
Lichtman elaborates, noting that the remaining two keys—contexts of overseas coverage failure or success—may nonetheless swing in Trump’s route earlier than the election. Nevertheless, he believes the eight keys favoring Harris are ample for her to win the presidency.Most conventional polls maintain Harris within the lead, although her margin stays throughout the error vary with two months to go earlier than Election Day. It is noteworthy that early voting begins the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.Each campaigns have reported ingrained defections from their opponent’s ranks. The Trump marketing campaign on Tuesday cited assist from Harris’ operating mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and different relations. On Wednesday, Harris’s marketing campaign was boosted by an endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney. Cheney, a staunch conservative and daughter of former U.S. vice-president Dick Cheney, beforehand opposed Trump. She introduced her choice to vote for Harris, citing the hazard Trump poses to america.
“I might vote for Harris due to the hazard Trump poses to america,” acknowledged Liz Cheney.
